2018 NBA Finals Thread.

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#1 May 30, 2018 10:01am
nuraman00
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2018 NBA Finals Thread.

If Clippers1121 or anyone else thinks individual threads are better for organization, then fine by me.

 

I can do mega threads, series threads, or individual threads.  Whatever other people are comfortable with.

 

Except for individual subforums.

May 30, 2018 10:01am
nuraman00
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May 30, 2018 11:22am
Clippers1121
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I am not making any more game threads this season.  A megathread for the whole series should be fine.  Not sure how many people on this board will even watch the finals.  If Iggy plays I am picking the Warriors in four.  If he does not play I am picking them in five.  This may be Curry's turn to get MVP for the Warriors.  JR Smith and Hill both stunk in the away games for the Cavs so not sure what they are going to do against the Warriors.  Not even sure if Kevin Love plays the first game.  Probably doesn't matter much.  I will cheer for the Cavs to win but I doubt if they will.

May 30, 2018 11:56am
trapp76
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Warriors sweep.

Probably won't even watch.

May 30, 2018 12:40pm
Hitnrun24
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If the Warriors play like they did last round, this series could go deeper than expected. There were a lot of ways for them to have lost that series. If Houston shoots just below average or if Paul stays healthy. The tough thing to get past is CLE defense is much worse than the Rockets so maybe all the bad things they were doing will get fixed in the Finals.

May 30, 2018 1:04pm
gilp5
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Warriors are not as strong as they used to be. This could be more competitive than people think.

May 30, 2018 1:12pm
V-Ice
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Cavs in 6
May 30, 2018 1:37pm
nuraman00
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gilp5 wrote:

Warriors are not as strong as they used to be. This could be more competitive than people think.

 

There's a ESPN article that says that when Durant was guarding James, over the past few years, Cleveland would outscore GS by 13 ppg.  It was about flipped when Iguodala was guarding James.

 

+++++++++++++++

 

According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Cavaliers posted a 130 offensive rating on possessions during last year's Finals when Kevin Durant was James' primary matchup. That dropped to 116 points per 100 possessions with Iguodala defending James.

James also was much more effective individually when defended by Durant rather than Iguodala. (No other Warriors player matched up with James for more than 35 possessions during the five-game series.) James' scoring dropped from 42 points per 100 possessions against Durant to 31 when matched with Iguodala, and James' effective field goal percentage dropped from 64.7 percent to 52.9 percent.

As a result, Cleveland outscored Golden State by 13.6 points per 100 possessions in last year's Finals with James on the court and Iguodala on the bench, per NBA Advanced Stats. With both players on the court, the Warriors held a 13.2-point edge per 100 possessions, flipping the outcome.

 

 

++++++++++++++++++++

Cavs need Jeff Green, JR Smith, Tristan Thompson, and Kyle Korver all clicking ("clicking" = rebounding for Thompson).

 

If they can get something out of Calderon, Nance Jr, or Clarkson, then even better.  Those guys might have a good game or two.

 

The Warriors have also been excessively careless this year.

 

Will they play like that in the Finals?  We will see.

May 30, 2018 1:37pm
nuraman00
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May 30, 2018 2:07pm
Clipps
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I have a hard time believing GSW is gonna lose this series. They should take care of them in 5. I think the Cavs would have had a chance if the Rockets didn't choke.

May 30, 2018 11:40pm
nuraman00
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors:

I wouldn't be surprised if Golden State sweeps.

And I wouldn't be surprised if Cleveland can make this a longer series, because they protect the ball better, and rebound better (Tristan Thompson).

Cleveland needs Thompson, Green, Korver, and Hill clicking.  If they can get something out of Nance Jr., Clarkson, JR Smith, and Hood, then good.

I think Golden State is due to sweep, even if there are a lot of warning signs, so I'll predict that.  But other scenarios can happen too.

In general, I always think a team has a chance to win some games in the Finals.  The only time I really didn't was the 2007 Cavs vs. Spurs.  Other than that, I always had a way that a series could be good.

Golden State in 4.

Golden State
Golden State
Golden State
Golden State

MVP:  Curry hasn't won Finals MVP yet.  I'll pick Thompson.

Trophy Presenter, if there is one:  Tim Hardaway.

I hope Cleveland makes it a good series, and can even win it.

May 30, 2018 11:46pm
gilp5
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Remember 2004 when not a single "expert" picked Detroit over the superstar Lakers? GSW might not be as good this year as people think.

May 31, 2018 5:14am
mannycoon
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The LA/Detroit series is one where a lot of those computer programs would have predicted the correct winner, based on regular season data. And Golden State might be worse than some people think, but Cleveland is probably moreso. They were taken to 7 by the Celtics missing multiple players and a very mediocre Pacers team. Toronto pathetically rolling over and dying made Cleveland look better, but that result was more about Toronto's failures. Golden State went to 7 with Houston, but Houston was a 65 win team. I'll say Warriors in 5.
May 31, 2018 6:50am
Mistwell
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GSW has this. Lebron just doesn't have the support crew he'd need to win this thing. 

May 31, 2018 9:30am
nuraman00
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mannycoon wrote:
The LA/Detroit series is one where a lot of those computer programs would have predicted the correct winner, based on regular season data. And Golden State might be worse than some people think, but Cleveland is probably moreso. They were taken to 7 by the Celtics missing multiple players and a very mediocre Pacers team. Toronto pathetically rolling over and dying made Cleveland look better, but that result was more about Toronto's failures. Golden State went to 7 with Houston, but Houston was a 65 win team. I'll say Warriors in 5.

 

I don't look down on Cleveland for playing in those long series.  Those opposing teams played tough and well.

May 31, 2018 9:35am
nuraman00
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gilp5 wrote:

Remember 2004 when not a single "expert" picked Detroit over the superstar Lakers? GSW might not be as good this year as people think.

 

Detroit had beaten the Lakers easily during the regular season, for several years running.

 

Back in 2003, Jackson said that Chauncey Billups made him sick.

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?id=230312008

 

AUBURN HILLS, Mich. (AP) -- Chauncey Billups was so good it almost made Phil Jackson sick.

Billups scored a season-high 33 points and made several dazzling plays during a 10-0 surge early in the fourth quarter as the Detroit Pistons beat the Los Angeles Lakers 111-88 Wednesday night.

"Too much Billups tonight," Jackson said. "He made me want to throw up."

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Detroit was also more consistent than this Cleveland team.  I don't know what to expect from JR Smith, Jeff Green, George Hill, or Kevin Love.

 

I knew what I was getting from Detroit.  That team was consistent.  Whether Rasheed felt like playing offense, was the only mystery.  He didn't like playing offense as much as defense, IMO.

 

 

 

 

May 31, 2018 9:50am
nuraman00
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gilp5 wrote:

Remember 2004 when not a single "expert" picked Detroit over the superstar Lakers? GSW might not be as good this year as people think.

 

The Lakers would have lost to Minnesota if Cassell hadn't gotten injured in game 2.  I thought the Pistons vs. Pacers series was better than the WCF.  And while the Pistons winning in 5 surprised me, I had seen enough regular season games between these teams, for several years, to know that they had the game plan that could work.

 

Just for the record, let's see what experts say:

 

ESPN:  

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23638666/nba-finals-predictions-warriors-cavaliers-win-title

 

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23638673/2018-nba-finals-5-5-debate-lebron-cavs-upset-warriors

 

CBS:  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2018-nba-finals-predictions-cbs-sports-picks-for-cavaliers-vs-warriors-round-4/

 

All picked Warriors, and the series length is 5, 6, 4, 5, 4, 5, 5, 6.

 

Fox:

 

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/nba-finals-preview-capsule-053018

 

One prediction, Warriors in 5.

 

Yahoo:

 

Pre-Playoffs:

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/yahoo-sports-2018-nba-playoff-predictions-165737055.html

 

2 people had the Raptors in the Finals.

 

Pre-Finals:

https://sports.yahoo.com/2018-nba-finals-preview-heavily-043806830.html

 

One prediction, Warriors in 4.

 

Sporting News:

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nba/news/nba-finals-2018-cavs-vs-warriors-prediction-pick-preview-schedule-lebron-james/78dser70283u1a2lu1lsxq7gv

 

One prediction, Warriors in 5.

 

They also say the Key Player is George Hill.

 

Basketball Insiders:

 

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/prediction-the-2018-nba-playoffs-first-round/

 

5 predictions, all Warriors.  5, 4, 5, 6, and 5 games.

 

 

 

May 31, 2018 9:51am
nuraman00
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Any other websites that make predictions?

May 31, 2018 9:53am
nuraman00
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I like this 2018 Cavs depth and player composition much more than the 2007 Cavs team.

 

Lebron James is also a much better driver and shooter than he was then.

 

I don't know what to expect on defense, because matchups rarely go the way I want them to go.  Due to switching, or other reasons.

May 31, 2018 9:56am
nuraman00
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My keys for Cleveland are rebounding.  They have to keep Curry, Green, and Pachulia off the boards.

 

Thompson, Green, Love, Nance Jr. need to rebound.  Korver is also a capable rebounder.

 

Hill and JR Smith are my biggest concerns.  When they suck, they look awful.

 

Calderon and Hood are my secret weapons.  I still think that they are capable of driving, passing, and shooting.

May 31, 2018 10:17am
gilp5
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nuraman00 wrote:

My keys for Cleveland are rebounding.  They have to keep Curry, Green, and Pachulia off the boards.

 

Thompson, Green, Love, Nance Jr. need to rebound.  Korver is also a capable rebounder.

 

Hill and JR Smith are my biggest concerns.  When they suck, they look awful.

 

Calderon and Hood are my secret weapons.  I still think that they are capable of driving, passing, and shooting.

 

Nuraman any way to find the ESPN "expert" picks from 2004?

May 31, 2018 10:19am
nuraman00
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gilp5 wrote:

nuraman00 wrote:

My keys for Cleveland are rebounding.  They have to keep Curry, Green, and Pachulia off the boards.

 

Thompson, Green, Love, Nance Jr. need to rebound.  Korver is also a capable rebounder.

 

Hill and JR Smith are my biggest concerns.  When they suck, they look awful.

 

Calderon and Hood are my secret weapons.  I still think that they are capable of driving, passing, and shooting.

 

Nuraman any way to find the ESPN "expert" picks from 2004?

 

I tried looking when I was compiling the 2018 picks.  You too had me curious as to what ESPN, as well as 4 - 5 other sites, had predicted.  But because I couldn't find much, and due to how much time I had available to post (I wanted to finish compiling the 2018 picks), I stopped looking.  I only looked for 1 - 2 mins.

May 31, 2018 10:21am
nuraman00
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And OT, but I always think of this post by yours, from 2012, @gilp.

 

I've agreed with it:

 

http://clippertalk.com/comment/32651#comment-32651

May 31, 2018 10:22am
Clippers1121
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Problem for the Lakers was that Karl Malone was injured and only played in four games and only averaged 5 points a game.  And then you had a Gary Payton who was supposed to be an All Star type addition to their roster and he only averaged 4 points and 4 assists a game.  While soaking up 33 minutes of playing time a game.  Kobe played 46 minutes a game and only shot 38% from the field.  Fisher, Luke Walton, Rick Fox, Devean George, Slava Medvedenko, and Kareem Rush were all journeyman players.  Meanwhile the Pistons had Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace in the post who were both beasts.  Rip Hamilton and Tyshaun Prince were both outstanding as a guard and small forward.  And then there is Billups who was at his peak then.  So Detroit had the better team when you account for Malone's injury and the ineffective Gary Payton.  So you could not even count that as an upset once the Mailman hurt his shoulder which did not happen until all the picks were in.  Plus they must not have accounted for how bad the Lakers secondary players were in case there was an injury.

May 31, 2018 10:39am
gilp5
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nuraman00 wrote:

And OT, but I always think of this post by yours, from 2012, @gilp.

 

I've agreed with it:

 

http://clippertalk.com/comment/32651#comment-32651

Ha! Thanks for that. To some extent it became true. We haven't seen too much focus on the Lakers here for the last few years, or at least more focus than on other teams.

May 31, 2018 10:29am
nuraman00
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Clippers1121 wrote:

Problem for the Lakers was that Karl Malone was injured and only played in four games and only averaged 5 points a game.  And then you had a Gary Payton who was supposed to be an All Star type addition to their roster and he only averaged 4 points and 4 assists a game.  While soaking up 33 minutes of playing time a game.  Kobe played 46 minutes a game and only shot 38% from the field.  Fisher, Luke Walton, Rick Fox, Devean George, Slava Medvedenko, and Kareem Rush were all journeyman players.  Meanwhile the Pistons had Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace in the post who were both beasts.  Rip Hamilton and Tyshaun Prince were both outstanding as a guard and small forward.  And then there is Billups who was at his peak then.  So Detroit had the better team when you account for Malone's injury and the ineffective Gary Payton.  So you could not even count that as an upset once the Mailman hurt his shoulder which did not happen until all the picks were in.  Plus they must not have accounted for how bad the Lakers secondary players were in case there was an injury.

 

Slava Medvenko would sometimes be my key for how the opposing team would win.  Sometimes, the more he shoots, the more chances the opposing team would have on the missed shot.

May 31, 2018 10:50am
nuraman00
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Here's predictions I found on IGN from 2004:

 

http://www.ign.com/articles/2004/06/03/nba-finals-predictions

 

One person had Lakers in 6, but said the keys were Hamilton vs. Bryant, and Billups vs. Payton.

 

ESPN NBA Basketball, the video game, had Pistons in 7.

 

NBA Live 2004 had Lakers in 5.

 

ESPN NBA Basketball had Billups averaging 21ppg, which he actually did in real life!

 

Their other key was Rasheed beating up Malone and holding him to 6ppg.

May 31, 2018 11:09am
gilp5
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nuraman00 wrote:

Here's predictions I found on IGN from 2004:

 

http://www.ign.com/articles/2004/06/03/nba-finals-predictions

 

One person had Lakers in 6, but said the keys were Hamilton vs. Bryant, and Billups vs. Payton.

 

ESPN NBA Basketball, the video game, had Pistons in 7.

 

NBA Live 2004 had Lakers in 5.

 

ESPN NBA Basketball had Billups averaging 21ppg, which he actually did in real life!

 

Their other key was Rasheed beating up Malone and holding him to 6ppg.

That article acknowledged that everyone was picking the Lakers hands down. It cautioned "I believe this is going to be a lot more competitive of a series than most people think. . . Maybe Detroit has a chance after all."

May 31, 2018 11:10am
V-Ice
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Cavs in 6. W/o Iggy the Warriors are in trouble defensively; who will guard the King? Hill, Hood and Green will have a great series.
May 31, 2018 11:11am
nuraman00
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@gilp, if you don't mind, can you read through this thread, that I've had since 2012?

 

And give me your thoughts on who said the line, and how I can get offiical confirmation.  I had another post summarizing everything last week.

 

http://clippertalk.com/topic/where-nba-finals-clip

 

This links back to the 2004 Finals, because I re-found this line when watching the Offical Pistons 2004 documentary.  At first I thought they sampled the line, but now I think really was said in one of the latter games of the series.  

 

Because it was a radio call (either Musburger on ESPN Radio, or George Blaha on WDFN Pistons radio), it's harder to confirm the source.  It's not like video where I can "see" which game it's from.

 

I can't tell which game the clip might be from.  Thanks in advance for reading through that thread.

May 31, 2018 11:12am
nuraman00
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V-Ice wrote:
Cavs in 6. W/o Iggy the Warriors are in trouble defensively; who will guard the King? Hill, Hood and Green will have a great series.

 

Do you think Iggy will play at all?

 

He was the best defender on James the past few years, even though James played great.

 

If Hill comes out strong in games 1 or 2, then I like their chances more.

May 31, 2018 11:13am
V-Ice
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I hope he doesn’t come back; however the Cavs will be ready.
May 31, 2018 11:14am
nuraman00
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I think the fact that a video game had the Pistons winning, supports mannycoon's post that simulators wouldn't have picked the Lakers so lobsided.

 

I don't know what I myself picked.  I make predictions for every playoffs round, NBA and MLB, but I think I only started doing that in 2006.  Maybe in 2005.

 

I was still a lurker in 2004.

May 31, 2018 1:07pm
gilp5
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nuraman00 wrote:

@gilp, if you don't mind, can you read through this thread, that I've had since 2012?

 

And give me your thoughts on who said the line, and how I can get offiical confirmation.  I had another post summarizing everything last week.

 

http://clippertalk.com/topic/where-nba-finals-clip

 

This links back to the 2004 Finals, because I re-found this line when watching the Offical Pistons 2004 documentary.  At first I thought they sampled the line, but now I think really was said in one of the latter games of the series.  

 

Because it was a radio call (either Musburger on ESPN Radio, or George Blaha on WDFN Pistons radio), it's harder to confirm the source.  It's not like video where I can "see" which game it's from.

 

I can't tell which game the clip might be from.  Thanks in advance for reading through that thread.

I have no clue who said it, but the TV station that created the intro must know because they obtained the rights to broadcast it.

May 31, 2018 1:34pm
nuraman00
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May 31, 2018 1:39pm
nuraman00
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gilp5 wrote:

nuraman00 wrote:

@gilp, if you don't mind, can you read through this thread, that I've had since 2012?

 

And give me your thoughts on who said the line, and how I can get offiical confirmation.  I had another post summarizing everything last week.

 

http://clippertalk.com/topic/where-nba-finals-clip

 

This links back to the 2004 Finals, because I re-found this line when watching the Offical Pistons 2004 documentary.  At first I thought they sampled the line, but now I think really was said in one of the latter games of the series.  

 

Because it was a radio call (either Musburger on ESPN Radio, or George Blaha on WDFN Pistons radio), it's harder to confirm the source.  It's not like video where I can "see" which game it's from.

 

I can't tell which game the clip might be from.  Thanks in advance for reading through that thread.

I have no clue who said it, but the TV station that created the intro must know because they obtained the rights to broadcast it.

 

According to that thread, I emailed ESPN in 2015.  When I get home, I'll check what their response was.  It probably wasn't helpful.

 

Maybe I had asked to buy/download the game where the clip is from, and they said no.  Maybe they didn't respond to whether they could find out who said it by looking at the rights obtained to the clip.

 

Actually I probalby won't have time to go through a lot of emails tonight, but I'll check in a few days when I have time to look at older emails.'


Thanks for the suggestion.  I can try to phrase any follow ups by asking if they can track the origin of the clip by following the rights obtrained.

 

Also, I think ABC/ESPN stopped playing that intro in 2015.  So I think they used that intro from 2005 - 2015.  

May 31, 2018 7:14pm
nuraman00
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First quarter had a combination of good defense and offense, outside of a few bad blown assignments by both teams.

Clarkson has bricked a ton of shots.  He also made 2 good hustle plays.

Larry Nance Jr. has grabbed some big boards.

Korver missing a technical free throw?  Cmon man.

Cleveland had an 11 point lead in the 2nd.  It's now tied at halftime.  Not a good sign.

Curry has made some great passes.

I'm glad it's been a good half.  But I don't have a good feeling because Clarkson and Hill have missed some shots and had bad turnovers, and Cleveland's defense is having more and more blown assignments.

I don't know if Cleveland can step up their defense enough.

Let's see if Korver can get going.

Love has had amazing passes in the 1st quarter.  Great start by him.

May 31, 2018 7:28pm
nuraman00
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Cavs can't score against JaVale McGee in the 3rd quarter.  :(

May 31, 2018 8:29pm
Mistwell
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Overtime game 1. Did not see that coming. Cavs should have called a timeout after that rebound. 

May 31, 2018 8:29pm
nuraman00
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Going to Overtime in Game 1.

I'm scared, because I think Cleveland keeps missing on opportunities.

May 31, 2018 8:30pm
nuraman00
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Mistwell wrote:

Overtime game 1. Did not see that coming. Cavs should have called a timeout after that rebound. 

 

Maybe J.R. thought they had the lead?  Will be interesting to hear his decision-making on that play.

May 31, 2018 8:30pm
V-Ice
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JR thought they had the lead..
May 31, 2018 8:44pm
Hitnrun24
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Refs should be ashamed changing a subjective block/charge call that big. You better have clear clear reason to change a subjective call that big

May 31, 2018 8:58pm
nuraman00
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I'm not going to get on George Hill for missing the FT in regulation.

Golden State still could have won the game in regulation with a made shot.

And J.R. Smith should have called timeout, or gotten a good shot off.

Or, Cleveland should have played better in OT.

Hill's missed FT was a missed opportunity, but Cleveland still had to make more plays to win the game.

May 31, 2018 8:59pm
ClipsAhoy
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Same Ref who called block. Kicked Thompson out of the game for nothing. Rigged
May 31, 2018 9:00pm
nuraman00
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I'll be watching game 2 on the DVR.  Hopefully it's one worth posting about, and I come back and see some good posts.

May 31, 2018 9:08pm
datlbn1p
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Cleveleand bleww it!, ref did have many questionable calls also

May 31, 2018 9:53pm
Clipps
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JR Smith wow

May 31, 2018 10:30pm
Hitnrun24
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First of all Lebron wasn't close to being in the restricted area so it was a bogus review. Then to change a call that could go either way bc you are reviewing to check on the restricted area is some lame officiating.

 

It's baffling why the refs felt like they needed to involve themselves in the game like that on a call that is very open to interpretation. No idea why this team gets so much help. Even against the Rockets there were some ludicrous calls in their favor.

May 31, 2018 10:56pm
VFHS
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This series is rigged. Another fake championship for the Warriors. Fucking disgusting that we saw a game like THAT from LeGOAT James wasted, all because of the NBA's agenda to turn the sport into nothing but chucking threes and flopping.

I mean, let's be real, there's a reason why the Warriors and Rockets get all the calls, why the salary cap magically allowed the Warriors to add KD, why Harden's getting the MVP over LeBron, why you can't breathe on guards but bigs can get mauled with no calls, etc. The league wants to become soccer on hardwood. They want to push the soft, finesse D'Antoni style of play, because three-pointers make for more "exciting" highlight reels for the casuals than fundamental post moves, or beautiful passes, etc. It's pathetic, what this league's becoming.

Jun 1, 2018 12:06am
Rhy1244
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Poor lebron. I woulda berated smith in front of everybody.